Updated on Friday 22 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 94702 (+1263) 1577147 (+25294) 298418 (+4106) 1184027 (+19925)
United Kingdom 36124 (+338) 252246 (+2627) 1134 (+18) 214988 (+2271)
Italy 32486 (+156) 228006 (+642) 134560 (+2278) 60960 (-1792)
France 28218 (+83) 181951 (+251) 63976 (+504) 89757 (-336)
Spain 27940 (+52) 233037 (+482) 150376 (+0) 54721 (+430)
Brazil 20047 (+1188) 310087 (+18508) 125960 (+9277) 164080 (+8043)
Belgium 9186 (+36) 56235 (+252) 14988 (+141) 32061 (+75)
Germany 8203 (+59) 179021 (+548) 158087 (+1121) 12731 (-632)
Iran 7249 (+66) 129341 (+2392) 100564 (+1756) 21528 (+570)
Mexico 6510 (+420) 59567 (+2973) 40152 (+1733) 12905 (+820)
Canada 6267 (+117) 82742 (+1167) 41731 (+938) 34744 (+112)
Netherlands 5794 (+27) 44900 (+253) 169 (+0) 38937 (+226)
China 4638 (+0) 84063 (+0) 79310 (+0) 115 (+0)
Turkey 4249 (+27) 153548 (+961) 114990 (+1003) 34309 (-69)
Sweden 3871 (+40) 32172 (+649) 4971 (+0) 23330 (+609)
India 3584 (+150) 118226 (+6198) 48553 (+3131) 66089 (+2917)
Peru 3148 (+124) 108769 (+4749) 43587 (+1619) 62034 (+3006)
Russia 3099 (+127) 317554 (+8849) 92681 (+7289) 221774 (+1433)
Ecuador 2939 (+51) 35306 (+452) 3557 (+0) 28810 (+401)
Switzerland 1898 (+6) 30694 (+36) 27900 (+100) 896 (-70)
Ireland 1583 (+12) 24391 (+76) 21060 (+0) 1748 (+64)
Indonesia 1278 (+36) 20162 (+973) 4838 (+263) 14046 (+674)
Portugal 1277 (+14) 29912 (+252) 6452 (+0) 22183 (+238)
Romania 1156 (+9) 17585 (+198) 10581 (+225) 5848 (-36)
Pakistan 1017 (+32) 48091 (+2193) 14155 (+1054) 32919 (+1107)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 328286 (+4809) 5018361 (+105952) 1869429 (+51273)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 327939 ( +2984) 5030120 ( +71680) 1889949 ( +42328)
Sat 23 May 2020 330736 ( +2797) 5098963 ( +68843) 1930904 ( +40955)
Sun 24 May 2020 333351 ( +2615) 5164895 ( +65932) 1970384 ( +39480)
Mon 25 May 2020 335790 ( +2439) 5227869 ( +62974) 2008307 ( +37923)
Tue 26 May 2020 338059 ( +2270) 5287861 ( +59992) 2044608 ( +36301)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84063 (+0) 79310 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 4624 ( +0) 84050 ( +1) 78131 ( +0)
Sat 23 May 2020 4624 ( +0) 84051 ( +1) 78132 ( +0)
Sun 24 May 2020 4624 ( +0) 84051 ( +1) 78132 ( +0)
Mon 25 May 2020 4624 ( +0) 84052 ( +1) 78132 ( +0)
Tue 26 May 2020 4624 ( +0) 84053 ( +1) 78132 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 27940 (+52) 233037 (+482) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 27752 ( +44) 229006 ( +123) 153807 ( +1300)
Sat 23 May 2020 27792 ( +39) 229115 ( +109) 155057 ( +1251)
Sun 24 May 2020 27827 ( +35) 229213 ( +97) 156259 ( +1202)
Mon 25 May 2020 27859 ( +32) 229299 ( +86) 157414 ( +1155)
Tue 26 May 2020 27887 ( +28) 229375 ( +77) 158524 ( +1109)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 32486 (+156) 228006 (+642) 134560 (+2278)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 32130 ( +68) 226312 ( +309) 134822 ( +2047)
Sat 23 May 2020 32192 ( +62) 226593 ( +281) 136788 ( +1966)
Sun 24 May 2020 32249 ( +57) 226848 ( +255) 138673 ( +1886)
Mon 25 May 2020 32300 ( +51) 227080 ( +232) 140479 ( +1805)
Tue 26 May 2020 32347 ( +47) 227291 ( +211) 142205 ( +1726)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 36124 (+338) 252246 (+2627) 1134 (+18)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 35783 ( +173) 247505 ( +1337) 1402 ( +45)
Sat 23 May 2020 35940 ( +157) 248735 ( +1230) 1448 ( +46)
Sun 24 May 2020 36082 ( +142) 249866 ( +1131) 1496 ( +48)
Mon 25 May 2020 36210 ( +128) 250906 ( +1039) 1545 ( +49)
Tue 26 May 2020 36325 ( +115) 251860 ( +954) 1596 ( +51)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 94702 (+1263) 1577147 (+25294) 298418 (+4106)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 94316 ( +765) 1560758 ( +12578) 301612 ( +5217)
Sat 23 May 2020 95017 ( +701) 1572411 ( +11652) 306570 ( +4958)
Sun 24 May 2020 95657 ( +641) 1583183 ( +10773) 311271 ( +4701)
Mon 25 May 2020 96241 ( +584) 1593124 ( +9940) 315720 ( +4449)
Tue 26 May 2020 96773 ( +531) 1602280 ( +9156) 319922 ( +4202)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 28218 (+83) 181951 (+251) 63976 (+504)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 28173 ( +68) 179827 ( +67) 63084 ( +296)
Sat 23 May 2020 28234 ( +62) 179886 ( +59) 63355 ( +271)
Sun 24 May 2020 28290 ( +56) 179938 ( +52) 63602 ( +247)
Mon 25 May 2020 28340 ( +50) 179983 ( +45) 63827 ( +225)
Tue 26 May 2020 28385 ( +45) 180023 ( +40) 64032 ( +205)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 8203 (+59) 179021 (+548) 158087 (+1121)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 8108 ( +20) 176999 ( +201) 156717 ( +484)
Sat 23 May 2020 8125 ( +18) 177180 ( +181) 157149 ( +432)
Sun 24 May 2020 8141 ( +16) 177344 ( +164) 157535 ( +385)
Mon 25 May 2020 8155 ( +14) 177491 ( +147) 157877 ( +343)
Tue 26 May 2020 8167 ( +12) 177624 ( +133) 158182 ( +305)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 5794 (+27) 44900 (+253) 169 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 5807 ( +21) 44102 ( +47) nan ( +nan)
Sat 23 May 2020 5826 ( +19) 44144 ( +42) nan ( +nan)
Sun 24 May 2020 5844 ( +18) 44181 ( +37) nan ( +nan)
Mon 25 May 2020 5860 ( +17) 44214 ( +33) nan ( +nan)
Tue 26 May 2020 5876 ( +16) 44244 ( +30) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 9186 (+36) 56235 (+252) 14988 (+141)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 9203 ( +25) 54495 ( +61) 14314 ( +30)
Sat 23 May 2020 9225 ( +22) 54549 ( +54) 14341 ( +27)
Sun 24 May 2020 9244 ( +19) 54597 ( +48) 14366 ( +24)
Mon 25 May 2020 9261 ( +17) 54640 ( +43) 14388 ( +22)
Tue 26 May 2020 9277 ( +15) 54679 ( +39) 14407 ( +20)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 3871 (+40) 32172 (+649) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 3863 ( +37) 32259 ( +402) 5088 ( +0)
Sat 23 May 2020 3899 ( +36) 32643 ( +384) 5088 ( +0)
Sun 24 May 2020 3933 ( +34) 33009 ( +366) 5088 ( +0)
Mon 25 May 2020 3965 ( +32) 33356 ( +347) 5088 ( +0)
Tue 26 May 2020 3995 ( +31) 33685 ( +329) 5088 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 972 (+10) 20143 (+404) 8452 (+269)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 974 ( +10) 20214 ( +291) 8559 ( +210)
Sat 23 May 2020 983 ( +10) 20493 ( +279) 8762 ( +204)
Sun 24 May 2020 993 ( +9) 20760 ( +266) 8959 ( +197)
Mon 25 May 2020 1001 ( +9) 21013 ( +254) 9148 ( +189)
Tue 26 May 2020 1009 ( +8) 21254 ( +241) 9330 ( +182)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 1898 (+6) 30694 (+36) 27900 (+100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 1887 ( +1) 30475 ( +3) 27823 ( +72)
Sat 23 May 2020 1888 ( +1) 30478 ( +3) 27889 ( +66)
Sun 24 May 2020 1889 ( +1) 30480 ( +2) 27951 ( +61)
Mon 25 May 2020 1890 ( +1) 30482 ( +2) 28007 ( +56)
Tue 26 May 2020 1891 ( +1) 30484 ( +2) 28059 ( +52)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 20047 (+1188) 310087 (+18508) 125960 (+9277)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 20309 ( +770) 318424 ( +15241) 134520 ( +8302)
Sat 23 May 2020 21068 ( +759) 333946 ( +15521) 143369 ( +8849)
Sun 24 May 2020 21814 ( +746) 349707 ( +15761) 152800 ( +9431)
Mon 25 May 2020 22544 ( +730) 365664 ( +15957) 162851 ( +10051)
Tue 26 May 2020 23256 ( +712) 381770 ( +16106) 173563 ( +10712)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 7249 (+66) 129341 (+2392) 100564 (+1756)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 22 May 2020 7126 ( +24) 131325 ( +2221) 93760 ( +267)
Sat 23 May 2020 7149 ( +23) 133557 ( +2232) 94003 ( +243)
Sun 24 May 2020 7170 ( +21) 135790 ( +2233) 94224 ( +221)
Mon 25 May 2020 7190 ( +20) 138015 ( +2225) 94426 ( +201)
Tue 26 May 2020 7208 ( +18) 140222 ( +2207) 94609 ( +183)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.